Business China Macau Macau Bubble stocks

Did the next Macau bubble just start two weeks ago?


The entire concept of a “bull market in stocks” makes little sense. Sound crazy? These days, certainly, because we’re always hearing about a perpetual bull market in stocks. Valuations increasingly disconnected from economic reality, asset bubbles in one class or another, armies of speculators moving like zombie hoards descending on the next fad and blowing it up to infinity and beyond, Buzz Lightyear-like.Why is the whole concept of a bull market generally, nonsense? Because if the value of everything is going up simultaneously, then nothing is going up. If everyone is a superhero, nobody is. If, in an imaginary economy, absolutely everything costs, say, $5, (labor, land, capital whatever) and then the next day everything costs $10, then what’s changed? The answer is absolutely nothing.The only thing that matters is relative valuations between asset classes. Let’s divide them into three of the most basic ones. Equities (stocks), bonds (debt), and commodities (consumer goods). If all three are going up in tandem, then there is no “bull market” in anything. If commodities are going up faster than stocks and bonds, you have inflation, or even hyperinflation. Ask anyone in Venezuela whether they care that their stock market is doing great, nominally. They don’t. They’re looking for their next glop of gruel or morsel of moldy bread to survive the day.But if stocks and bonds are rising and consumer goods are static to falling, you have a bull market in financial assets. This is where we are now. And boy are we really hard and deep into it now. Below is the ratio of the S&P 500 to the CRB Commodities Index.And I’ve got news for everyone. This bull market in stocks relative to consumer goods in dollar terms is already over. It ended almost a year ago. On April 20, 2020 to be exact. Red circle blowoff top above. That was when oil crashed to negative $35 a barrel and we all lived in an alternative financial freakhouse universe. But I have more news than that. This entire “bull market” in stocks has been one gigantic illusion from the very beginning. Stocks aren’t going up. They haven’t gone up for 21 years. Money is going down. Here is the graph of stocks relative to the prime monetary commodity, gold, over the same timeframe above.We can see here that from 1990 to 2000, we had a real bull market in stocks. Equities rocketed in gold terms and in terms of consumer goods generally. Everyone felt richer. Portfolios up, expenses down. But since that time, money has been dying at an accelerated pace and the standard of living has fallen.The bull market in stocks over the last 21 years has been an illusion, a tiny echo of the bull that ended at the turn of the century. We have spent the last 21 years trying to reinflate it, but gold has exposed the lie. We are now at the point where the illusion is about to collapse completely. In my view, we have only a few months left until it all hits the fan. Until then, the bubbles will keep coming in staccato frenetic fashion, moving from one asset class to another faster and faster, until we all get so dizzy we can’t follow it anymore. Last week I speculated that maybe the next target for the zombie hoard will be in penny gaming stocks. I was close. It’s in Macau stocks. It may already have started two weeks ago. The frenzy has started over news about China opening up again. I mean, just look at this crazy chart of the Macau proxy ETF:That last surge higher is just since February 1. We could be at the beginning of a crazy but brief ride higher in Macau stocks right now. New all time highs again, and Macau isn’t even fully open yet. The latest full month statistics for December show a 78.6% drop in visitors year over year. And yet we’re at new all time highs in these stocks already. It’s just completely crazy. I can understand the Macau opening up again trade, but to argue that this factor is being priced in at these levels, at new all time highs? As if none of this full year shutdown hurt any of the casinos fundamentally at all? That’s just totally bonkers crazy. It’s a reflection of the value of the currency these stocks are priced in, not the stocks themselves.What’s happening is that the zombie hoard of bubble chasers is reading the headlines regarding China starting to open up again, and they’re slamming buy orders and call options like they’ve been doing with tech stocks and Gamestop and BTC and all the other fads. We just got news out of Bloomberg that China’s Imax had a face-ripping rally due to exploding ticket sales. China is, indeed opening up, and the zombie hoard of speculators is now going to spray their money hoses at anything Chinese. Macau might be at the center of it.How high can this Macau bubble go, if that’s what we just saw start two weeks ago? The truth is, it doesn’t matter. If you get into it, you’ll get hooked and keep levering yourself up, counting your paper gains, unable to separate from them until you get caught in a vortex. At some point, my view this year, it’s all going to come crashing down when all the damage from 2020 is finally revealed all over the world. You can’t paper it over forever. The damage to Macau casinos doesn’t just go away. It festers in the form of more and more debt, and a damaged consumer base that can no longer patronize casinos in the way it once could. Festering wounds need the paper bandage removed and they need to be operated on. That is painful. And it’s coming.When we think of the word “bubble”, what are we really talking about? A bubble is something that looks, from the outside, to be really big and stable. The shape of it, a sphere, is the most stable shape in the universe. It’s why planets, stars, moons, and possibly even the spacetime continuum itself, spontaneously shape themselves into spheres. The force of gravity equalizes at every point on the sphere, forming equilibrium. Nature always seeks equilibrium. And so bubbles take on the illusion of stability, but unlike a real sphere, there’s nothing inside them. When they pop, they are gone almost instantly. This one is about to pop. Macau appears to be the next victim sucked up by the bubble. Macau will survive and rebuild. The question is, in what form? I wouldn’t take a bet the depended on me getting the answer to that question right.

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News

Intertops at WSOP Milli Maker!


I can’t believe how fast the time has gone by! Last year was my first World Series of Poker and it seems like just yesterday!Now, My second World series of Poker is halfway through and another year is almost already in the books! Time sure does fly! Going through these blog posts and thinking about my time last year, the good and the bad, sure was an exciting ride! I didn’t have anywhere near the schedule I attempted last year, but that didn’t mean I was going to miss out on the action! Things were just as exciting this year, but from a different perspective for me at least! Intertops had a great idea to send out two online qualifiers out for their chance at glory! After all who doesn’t want a WSOP bracelet and a million dollars!! The two qualifiers won their seats to the Milli Maker through a $100 buy-in satellite on Intertops online poker site. A pretty good deal considering its a $3500 package and the fields were only about 20 players deep! The deal was to set everyone up at the Rio for a 6 nights stay, so we could make the process run smoother and give the players the full experience of the amazingly fun CHAOS that is the WSOP! lol It also included the $1500 buy-in to the Milli Maker and $500 travel expenses. We also may have had a few nights of cocktails and food thrown on the Intertops tab as well.,,,maybe ???? but I’m not admitting anything! lolI met up with the two qualifiers, Barney from West Virginia and Balazs from Hungary for a drink a day before the tournament. They were both excited for Vegas, but it wasn’t their first time out here. Barney had been several times and Balazs once before. It was,however, their first WSOP tournament! Barney thought he had a rough flight, coming all the way from the other side of the country, until Balazs told us it had taken him over 18 hours just to get to LAX and then took a bus ride the rest of the way to Vegas!! While the scenery was probably pretty cool to see, we still had to give him credit for tackling the long journey! It was cool to hear their stories and as usual I told them plenty of my own. lol I kinda have a tendency to ramble on after a “Jack and Coke” lol We had some laughs and talked some strategy and I was happy to get to know them both! I was glad to learn they both weren’t really interested in the craziness of Vegas, they were focused on the Milli Maker and couldn’t wait to get to the tables! So we made our way to the cage for their tickets and their shot at the guaranteed one MILLION dollar first place prize!The World Series of Poker never learns their lesson apparently and again have most of the big tourneys starting at 10 am! So we had an early start the next day! Luckily the guys both came in a day early to help with the jet lag and try to get use to it before the big day. I doubt either player was real concerned about the lack of sleep and more concerned about the nerves of excitement as they sat down to play.The room was packed full of players and you could literally feel the excitement in the air! While it is chaotic many times at the WSOP, there really isn’t another poker experience like it. It’s truly amazing and if you haven’t ever at least gone to witness it, you really need to. I was pumped to sweat the action of these two guys ! They both handled themselves well midst all the madness and after few orbits, they had settled in nicely. We all had a quick chat on break about just enjoying the experience they both seemed to start not only getting comfortable but crushing their tables! Balazs had started to chip up quite a bit, but Barney was the one on a HEATER! He had a massive pot shipped his way, in i believe level 3, that turned out to be the boost he needed to catapult him to a deep run! I know he’s going to explain it better in an upcoming interview with Rikard from PokerTube, but from what he told me, it went something like this…He had Ace Jack of Spades in the big blind and a super loose aggressive player (coincidentally from my home casino lol) opened from mid position and got a one caller. Barney decided to just flat and see a flop. The flop came 9 high with two spades, a pretty awesome spot for Barney, but he decided to check and let the loose aggressive raiser hang himself, but to his surprise he checked and the caller, who was pretty short stacked, moved all in! Barney had the nut flush draw and two overs, so he called, only to have the original pre-flop loose aggro player check-shove ALL IN! Barney went into the tank, the loose guy had him covered , so this was for his tournament life!! He told me later he thought back to our talk about just enjoying himself and said “screw it”, making the call and taking the gamble! I can’t say I blame him for calling off, knowing the player that made the shove to be very wild and spazzy. He turns over his AJ spades to hear the “good call” from the loose player while he shows K10 of spades for the second nut flush draw and two overs. Well the spades missed the turn and river, but a Jack hit and was enough to seal the deal and ship HEAPS to our man, pushing him to over 3 x average stack in level 3!!! Woohooo!I’ll leave you hanging on that high note and in suspense! lol I’ll finish up with part two this weekend and hopefully figure out how to add some cool videos on here by then! We had some great moments and really wanna share those highlights! Be sure to check back for them soon and check out all the current events for Intertops here! Or if you want to ask me directly, come stop into our new YouTube channel and see my new Live Stream on there! Say hello, give us a like and see what we have planned for some cool upcoming projects!Run Good!Tim

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Featured Indian Poker News

Daily Cash Smash 2.0 Live Now At The Cash Tables On PokerBaazi


Starting from 16th February to 28th February, PokerBaazi will be hosting the Daily Cash Smash! 13 Days, daily leaderboards and prize pool of INR 21.45 Lakhs! The players can grind any of the three (NLHE/PLO-4/PLO-5) cash tables and all the chips won from the leaderboards will be withdrawable (separate for all three variants)! 
All players will have a chance to win from a daily prize pool of INR 1.65 Lakhs! All you have to do is play the cash tables between 10:00 AM – 4:00 AM! 
The Daily Leaderboard prize pool 

5/10 & 10/25 (Texas Hold’Em): Daily 8k Leaderboard
1/2 & 2/5 (Texas Hold’Em): Daily 4k Leaderboard
25/50 & 50/100 (Texas Hold’Em): Daily 12k Leaderboard
5/10 & 10/25 (PLO-5): Daily 6k Leaderboard
25/50 & 50/100 (PLO-5): Daily 15k Leaderboard
1/2 & 2/5 (PLO-4): Daily 2k Leaderboard
10/25 & 25/50 (PLO-4): Daily 8k Leaderboard

It’s time to grind again on PokerBaazi, but this time, it’s going to have to be on the cash felts! Head over to the link below for more information about the Daily Cash Smash 2.0 and Leaderboards
For more information about the latest poker promotions and poker news, keep reading PokerShots! 

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problemgambling

My Confession: Male, Age 21 (AUSTRALIA)


Let me give you some valuable background info first: I live at home with my Dad & my girlfriend (she’s between houses). They’re both my best friends. I am currently going through a chronic pain type disorder that appeared in both wrists & forearms since July 2020. In & out of appointments/checks every fortnight. I am unable to do much in my day, it hurts to do normal things in my day – so I am unable to work or study anymore. Painkillers are not helping. Thursday was the day, the day I basically lost my entire life savings. Since then, I’ve been using every single dollar I can get my hands on to recover this loss & I’m sure you know where I’m at now. $8 in debt & unemployed with no income. But how did I get here? I got caught gambling when I was 17/18, lost all my money then too but it was less than $1000 (my Dad was the only one who knew). Since then, I vowed to never gamble again & I didn’t until 2 weeks ago. My Dad & I were watching the cricket & he placed a $100 multi (he rarely gambles) & won $450. We both thought this was great so I put in $50 myself for the next game. I ended up losing $25 & won it back in the darts later on. I then decided to move on & not do any more as my girlfriend of 2 years (the one I’ll marry) did not approve of me gambling again. So I stopped – until my Dad persuaded me to lie & just gamble anyway behind her back. It was innocent losses, $5-$10 here & there for the next 2 weeks. It wasn’t until last week, the day after my girlfriend’s birthday, that everything went downhill. She had to work Wed & Thu which left me to be alone for 2 days. I was very down in the dumps & just felt like I had all this money & didn’t use it (which is the stupidest thing ever, I know). So I started gambling on the races. With high $1000 bets & spent hours & hours, got up $10k then back down to $5k before I bet my whole bank to get back where I started at $15k. I stopped, went in my room & realised what I did, I almost lost my ENTIRE bank. Did I stop there? Nope, you guessed it. Eventually, one thing led to another & now I’m $15k down & $9 in debt. I confessed everything to my girlfriend & Dad on Thursday. Which they were both very supportive. I had $2000 in my bank then & said I’d stop. But I didn’t, Iost $1500 yesterday & $500 today. So yes in $9 debt. Although I do not have an addiction (oddly enough I studied psychology for 2 years before this chronic pain stopped me), I have definitely fallen into the trap of gambling once again & I only risked losing my last $2000 to not win the money back, but rather I looked at it as an outlet to make money so I can provide my girlfriend & I with a future. But this was such a bad mindset to approach everything. $9 in debt. I am stopping here. I vow to, right here, right now. I have not told my girlfriend or Dad about the last $2000, but I think I will hang onto this one for now as I can make that back in selling some of my collectables that have been collecting profit over the years. So thank god for that at least. Additionally, I may receive a pension for my condition so if that’s approved, must lock my money away. I had to get all this out & it has put me in an awful lot of PHYSICAL pain to even write this due to my chronic pain condition. I don’t expect anyone to read this all as this is rather for me. Thank you. C. submitted by /u/codesfrost [comments]

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Business Gambling Ireland

The luck of the Irish has Ireland at the top of global gambling spend


It may not have originated in Ireland, but the phrase “the luck of the Irish” rings loudly in the country. According to The Irish Post, more money is spent, per capita, on gambling in Ireland than in almost all other countries around the world. Only in two countries – Australia and Singapore – is more spent hitting the slots and the tables than in Ireland.The media outlet doesn’t source its data, but indicates that the Irish love online gambling more than any other form. Online gambling spend is 60%, greatly superior to other forms gambling and sports gambling, which only accounts for 15% of the money. The lottery receives a 10% cut, the same amount given to gambling machines and slots. Casinos, of which Ireland has around 20, pick up 5% of the action.While Australia and Singapore may see more gambling spend per capita, Ireland is the hands-down winner in online gaming spend, with The Irish Post asserting, “Ireland takes the lead globally when it comes to online gambling.” It adds, “With almost 3 billion American dollars spent on gambling and betting every year, that means that each man, woman, and child in Ireland are spending roughly 500 [euros] ($607) annually on this type of entertainment.”The media outlet further indicates that online gambling is most popular in Ireland because the segment is more regulated. It cites “outdated laws” that some casinos are exploiting to attract attention, but the transparency and accountability afforded gamblers by online operators give them an edge. The Irish Post explains that, according to reports, many Irish would prefer to gamble in a British casino than in a domestic one, possibly as a result of the outdated laws.Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, the Irish loved to gamble online and the segment increased about 15% each year. Last year, with the coronavirus in full swing, the numbers jumped substantially and, with the introduction of live online casino games and live sports gambling, the online segment has skyrocketed in popularity. Online gambling is inarguably the future, looking down the road 20 to 30 years, but it’s never too early for casino operators to start preparing.Surprisingly, the U.S. ranks fifth in terms of per-capita gambling spend, even less than Finland. However, with a population of over 330 million, it’s the largest market available. $120 billion was spent on gambling in the country in 2019, while the Irish spent $2.7 billion through its population of less than five million.

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Articles Short Posts

Finding folds at the WSOP

Those who know my game well know I don’t particularly like to fold reasonably strong hands. While being a bit of a calling station works well against most good, aggressive players who almost always have at least some bluffs in their ranges, against weaker opponents who play blatantly straightforward and rarely bluff, calling down with good, but not amazing, hands can get you in a ton of trouble. This WSOP has provided me with numerous examples where I should simply lay down a hand to a weak, passive player that would be criminal to fold against someone with a balanced range.
The first example took place in a $1,500 WSOP event. The blinds were 25/25 and everyone had around 4,500 chips. I raised with Kc-Qd to 75 from middle position and both the small blind and big blind called. Both of my opponents were around 55 years old and had yet to take any sort of an aggressive betting line. The flop came Ks-Ts-6d. My opponents checked to me and I bet 150. Only the big blind called. The turn was the (Ks-Ts-6d)-2c. The small blind checked and I decided to bet 300 for value. To my surprise, he made it 1,000 with little thought. I reluctantly folded and he proudly showed me his Kh-Th.
While most good players could, and likely should, have flush draws and marginal made hands they decided to turn into bluffs in their range, a tight passive player is almost never bluffing. Knowing this, which hands would he realistically check raise large for value and, in his mind, protection? I imagine the worst hand he may think is a “premium” hand on this board would be K-J. If that is the worst possible hand he can have, K-Q is in awful shape. It is worth noting that you will occasionally fold the best hand but against his tight value range, K-Q is crushed. Even if he had a few premium draws in his range, K-Q still simply must be folded.  When your opponent’s range is almost entirely premium made hands, if you have a good, but not premium, made hand, you should usually fold.
Another hand came up a little while later in the same tournament. This time, the blinds were 150/300-25 with 15,000 effective stacks. A tight, passive player raised to 750 from the small blind and I elected to call in the big blind with Js-Tc. The flop came Jh-Jd-9h. My opponent bet 900 and I called. The turn was the (Jh-Jd-9h)-6c. He checked and I quickly tossed in 1,500, hoping to look as if I was trying to blatantly steal the pot. When he check raised to 4,000 with confidence, I assumed the way I put my chips in the pot induced him to run an optimistic bluff. I elected to call, hoping he would shove the river. The river was the (Jh-Jd-9h-6c)-8s. My opponent instantly went all-in for 9,000 and I called with little though, losing to his 6d-6s.
So, where did I go wrong? Some people may think I should have raised the flop for “protection” but if the opponent only has a few outs, you should not be concerned with getting outdrawn, especially if you suspect you will be able to extract an additional street of value later on the turn or river. I was also concerned that he would fold almost all hands worse than a 9 if I raised, which would be a disaster as I certainly want to keep him in the pot with various A and K high hands. Finally, I wasn’t entirely sure I could profitably get in 50 big blinds against this specific player if he elected to reraise on the flop.
I messed up badly on the turn. I thought he would view my splashy bet as a bluff whereas in reality, he probably wasn’t paying attention to how I put my chips in the pot in the least bit. If he had nothing, he would fold and if he had a good hand, he would call. It is as simple as that. I then compounded my error by assuming my opponent would lose his mind and attack my splashy bet, which he probably wasn’t even aware of. This made me think my opponent’s range consisted of almost entirely hands I crush. In reality, he simply has a J or better every time. When he instantly pushed on the nasty 8s river, which improved Q-T and J-8 to better hands, I should have found a fold because I lose to all value hands besides perhaps a vastly overplayed overpair. I leveled myself about as hard as possible.
I know that most players know to not pay off tight, passive players, but I seem to forget it from time to time. When someone who hasn’t put a chip in the pot in an aggressive manner all of a sudden wants to stick his whole stack in, you need an overly premium hand to continue. Don’t forget it.
If you are going to the WSOP, I strongly suggest you spend some time preparing. If you simply show up and expect to succeed, you are almost certain to fail. I recorded a six-hour long training series for you that explains all of the preparations I make in order to ensure I have the best chance to do well. I also discuss how to play with the wildly varying stacks you will be forced to play with at the WSOP. Check it out here: Jonathan Little’s WSOP Coaching Series
Thanks for reading and good luck in your games!
This article initially appeared in CardPlayer magazine.

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daniel negreanu Dara ‘Kearney David Lappin Doug Polk Poker Poker on Screen The Lock-In

Poker on Screen special: Polk guests on The Lock-In to break down Heads-Up victory


If you’ve never seen Dara O’Kearney and David Lappin hosting The Lock-In before, then you’ve already missed out on some of the best poker content that has been out there during your country’s version of lockdown.  If that’s the case, then head here for a more general look at The Lock-In and enjoy the whole canon. If you’re already a confirmed fan, however (guilty as charged), then this week’s detailed look at the action between Doug Polk and Daniel Negreanu by the challenge’s winner – Polk if you’ve been living under a soundproofed rock at least a continent away from Las Vegas – is just for you.  In it, Doug Polk answers a range of questions from the Irish poker legends as he goes deep in terms of analysing his win and talking the boys and viewers through how he did it. Crib notes – it was a lot of hard work. In this episode of the Lock-In, it would be easy for Lappin and O’Kearney to simply gloat at Negreanu, especially as the Canadian six-time WSOP bracelet winner was both ignorant and disparaging in equal measure to their award-winning podcast when The Chip Race (presented by the Irish duo) was given due credit by their peers at The Global Poker Awards of 2019.   That they don’t is to their credit and the very reason why both The Chip Race and The Lock-In have become essential viewing over the last few years, with the questions both detailed and knowledgeable and the pace of the interview perfect for their subject, the eponymous Polk – to eulogise on exactly what went right and wrong.  There’s not a sausage in sight and Polk is refreshingly honest and open about how he structured his attack on Negreanu and in breaking down the closing half of the challenge, we learn a lot about how even the best heads-up online players stay at the level they’re at – hours and hours (and more hours) of work.  Polk’s success, of course, came to the tune of $1.2 million eventually, but that took a huge winning session in the last yards to mean a seven-figure win was confirmed and was done so with a modicum of humility by Polk. He was the player many saw as the aggressor early on, but opinions have rightly changed on that. Negreanu frequently believed that he played ‘perfect poker’, but Polk laughs at the very idea, admitting to making hundreds of errors as anyone would do in a massive heads-up challenge, even the best in the world.  Polk is honest enough to admit that should the heads-up game have been live, then he may have been a marginal dog in the fight, but between the three men, they go into some great detail around exactly why this kind of game would not have been totally to Negreanu’s advantage had it gone ahead. Of course, had the pair arranged to play 25,000 live hands of heads-up poker, it’s likely we would be covering it by the time Donald Trump runs for U.S. President again in 2024. Don’t shake your head; it could happen.  Polk is called ‘hyper aware of his weaknesses’ by David Lappin and in a complimentary fashion, which Polk responds to very well, taking the time to talk about ‘knowing what he doesn’t know’, and as he describes, he has always been perfectly prepared to look at solvers, analyse his play and be open enough to look at where he has been wrong. The more you watch of the episode, you more that you realise Polk’s strength in the challenge was actually to appreciate that every session is full of mistakes by both players and being ‘hyper-aware’ of that was the edge.  If you haven’t seen the hour-long special, then it’s essential viewing and can be viewed right here:  Doug Polk is pure gold throughout, but he’s helped more than adequately by two of the best presenters in poker. If only they weren’t so successful at the felt, we might be treated to O’Kearney and Lappin presenting the game on a more regular basis whenever live poker returns, because apart from high-beef content sausage proprietors, who wouldn’t watch them?  

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Guest Posts

Live Open Face Chinese Poker

Lessons I’ve Learned at the World Championship
by Jennifer Shahade
The two-time US women’s chess champion, and PokerStars Mind Sports Ambassador Jennifer Shahade admits that her biggest highlight of this poker season was winning the TonyBet Open Face Chinese World Championship High Roller event. Not only was it the biggest live buy-in she ever played, it was also the biggest cash prize of her career.
Since the event was streamed live, the recorded video footage allowed Jennifer to analyze her own game and use it to teach others about OFC poker. In this piece Jennifer shares her thoughts on two hands she played during the tournament and looks at them in more detail.

At this point of the tournament I had Jason Mercier and Marek Kolk as my opponents. Jason is a really good player under pressure, he has a lot of experience. In Open Face Chinese I think he plays a bit more conservatively than average. Jason is also extremely dangerous under new formats and new situations, as he can adjust very quickly, being used to that from high stakes mixed games.
So considering many of the players were not as used to tournament format that could give Jason an edge. I didn’t know as much about Marek Kolk though from the few hands I played with him, he seemed more on the aggressive side and willing to take risks when it’s close, so he and Jason were presenting two very different aspects of the game here.
Just like in other forms of poker, sometimes a more conservative line and a more aggressive line can have similar equity, so in Open Face it’s about trying to figure out when your style is interfering with the correct mathematical choice. I’m not sure where I lie on the spectrum – I think I’m pretty good, of course. Though if I had to identify a leak in this respect, I’d say I am probably a bit too conservative/straightforward when my hand is bad.
When talking about this particular hand, I definitely would have played Queen on top, 2, 3 in the middle and 7, 4 in the back first to act, as Marek did. I can’t see another way to set my hand: 2, 4 in the middle and J, 5, 5 at the bottom seems totally standard, the jack is the perfect kicker for the back.
As for Jason’s hand, anyone who watches my Run It Once videos knows how partial I am to pairs over three-flushes. With all of the kings, tens and sixes live, I’d consider K, K, 6 in the back, ten in the middle and ace up top. Believe it or not we are over 50% to make a boat or quads in this spot, which sounds outrageous, but makes sense when you consider how it’s rather unusual that all of our kings and kickers are live.
It’s also very nice that our other kicker is so live too so we’ll make two pair in the middle quite comfortably. Of course his set is very well designed for fantasyland, though I think my way gets there quite often as well.
I think Marek’s hand was shaping up poorly compared to our hands. Presumably, he did not get a diamond, and Jason was very likely to complete his flush. Meanwhile, all my jacks and fives were live too, and there were still three aces live at the time, so he decided it was time to gamble.
I think I’d play it the same way though I don’t know his discard on the crucial pull where he decided to gamble for Fantasy Land.
I think the value of Fantasy Land is slightly less in three-handed play. As I discuss in my Run It Once videos, however, I think that in three-handed it’s also a little easier to get to it because we will have more information about which kickers will be live and which will be dead.
Whether or not to go for Fantasy late in the game is often a pure math problem! It became a bit more complex in the tournament format with short stacks though I normally believed that if I had a relatively short stack, it was even more profitable to gamble for Fantasy.
It’s also very relevant as to which position we’ll be in when we come out of Fantasy Land. It’s not that important to see our opponent’s first five cards when we set a Fantasy hand, it will only occasionally change our set. However, it’s quite important if we can find ourselves on the button after getting out of Fantasy, rather than “wasting” our button while we are in Fantasy.
A very important factor to consider before playing a live Open Face Chinese poker event is one’s physical and mental preparation. Because you have to play each and every hand, it is very different from Hold’em tournaments.
I had an event in London the day before the OFC High Roller, and I wasn’t confident that I’d be rested enough to play the 10K High Roller. I ended up changing my seat from an aisle to a window the night before, and slept the entire flight. If not for that, maybe I wouldn’t have ended up playing and taking home the biggest cash of my career and the belt!
I was so energized to be in beautiful Prague, and just before sundown, I texted my friend Warren Lush to see what he was up to and how the High Roller was going. He encouraged me to come out and play and I rushed to the tournament. All in all, a great example of the butterfly effect for me.
I also had a wonderful time at the tournament – I’d never played a so-called “High Roller” before, though I’d played 10Ks in Main Events, this was quite different. I noticed that ironically, the atmosphere was more informal and relaxed. I also thought the staff did an exceptional job, especially considering how late the tournament ran. And the food was amazing at Kings Casino, I’ll always remember the steak and champagne I had after winning. I’m missing Prague already!

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ขออภัยที่โพสต์ยาว / ระบายล่วงหน้า! สำหรับการอ้างอิงการเสพติดเป็นสิ่งที่ฉันไม่คุ้นเคย ดูเหมือนลักษณะครอบครัวที่ทุกคนติดยาเสพติดหรือแอลกอฮอล์เป็นส่วนใหญ่ แต่แม่เลือกที่จะเล่นการพนัน สิ่งที่แย่ที่สุดเกี่ยวกับเธอคือฉันอาจจะเข้าหาเธอตอนที่ฉันอายุ 10 ขวบเท่านั้น เราเล่นกับเกมบิงโกที่ “เป็นอันตราย” ในช่วงวันหยุดมีอยู่ช่วงหนึ่งตุ๊กตาหมีกำลังพูดเหมือนเงินเพื่อเล่นและชนะ มันเป็นช่วงเวลาที่ดีและชื่นชอบความทรงจำ แต่ฉันมีความเข้าใจเกี่ยวกับอินเทอร์เน็ตและเมื่อเรากลับถึงบ้านฉันได้แนะนำวิธีการเล่นออนไลน์ที่บ้านและจะมีเวลาระหว่างเรามันปลอดภัยที่จะบอกว่าเราชนะด้วยโชคดีครั้งใหม่ มันสนุกอยู่พักหนึ่ง แต่ตอนเป็นเด็กฉันเบื่ออย่างรวดเร็ว ฉันแทบไม่รู้เลยว่าฉันปลูกเมล็ดพันธุ์เพื่อการเสพติดของแม่ของฉันเอง ตอนนี้ฉันรู้แล้วว่าตอนนี้เขาตื่นเต้นแค่ไหนที่เขาน่าจะตื่นเต้น แม้วันนี้ฉันเกลียดตัวเองในสิ่งที่ทำ เธอเสียเงินมากมายเราเสียคริสตมาสมากมาย ไม่สามารถจ่ายบิลหรือซื้ออาหารได้ภายในสองสามสัปดาห์ เธอไม่เคยให้อภัยตัวเองสำหรับเรื่องทั้งหมดนี้ ฉันมักจะโทษตัวเองอย่างสมบูรณ์และสัญญาว่า ID จะไม่มีวันสิ้นสุด คืนนี้ฉันมีความสำนึกว่าฉันมีอยู่แล้ว การปิดกั้นและการ จำกัด โควิดทำให้ฉันเบื่อฉันเชื่อ เบื่อมากพอที่จะลืมว่าการพนันเป็นอันตรายแค่ไหนและในอดีตมันทำร้ายฉันมากแค่ไหน ฉันลงทะเบียนบนเว็บไซต์บิงโก 20 ปอนด์ไม่เป็นอันตรายมาก ฉันถูกรางวัลแจ็คพอต เหลือเชื่อในที่สุดฉันก็สามารถชำระหนี้เล็กน้อยที่เหนือการปิดกั้นและไม่สามารถหยุดคิดอย่างจริงจังว่าฉันโชคดีและรู้สึกขอบคุณแค่ไหน ครอบครัวของฉันแสดงความยินดีกับฉันพร้อมกับพูดติดตลกว่า “ระวังอย่าโง่ง่ายเกินไปอย่าไล่เงิน” และฉันก็ตอบอย่างมั่นใจว่าไม่ไม่ฉันรู้ว่าฉันกำลังทำอะไรอยู่ ก่อนหน้านี้ฉันรู้ว่าฉันจะไม่เป็นแบบนั้น ฉันไม่ระวังเงินให้มาก … ตอนนี้หยุดไม่ได้แล้วฉัน จำกัด บัญชี แต่ฉันยังคงสร้างบัญชีใหม่ในเว็บไซต์ต่างๆ หลังจากที่ฉันแพ้ที่นี่อีกครั้งฉันมักจะแบนพวกเขาที่นี่ 10, 20 ปอนด์, 50 ปอนด์และอื่น ๆ อีกมากมาย ฉันไม่เคยทำลายซึ่งหายาก แม้ว่าฉันจะชนะฉันก็เก็บเงินส่วนใหญ่ไว้ในบัญชีเพื่อเล่น อาจจะอยู่ในม้วน … ดีแค่ถอน 50 ปอนด์ป่วยที่ฉันใส่ จากนั้นก็ส่งใหม่อีกครั้ง .. และอีกครั้งฉันไม่ทันคิดเลขเพื่อหาว่าฉันจะเสียเท่าไหร่ ฉันรู้สึกว่างเปล่า ฉันสะสมมากกว่าที่ฉันคาดไว้จะรู้เช่น ID ทำอะไรสำเร็จ ฉันแค่รู้สึกมึน ๆ ฉันเพิ่งเริ่มเล่นเดิมพันโง่ ๆ เพื่อดูเงินที่มองไม่เห็นหรือไม่? ฉันไม่รู้สึกอะไรเลย ฉันหยุดไม่ได้ จำนวนเงินฝากไม่สำคัญแม้กระทั่งเมื่อฉันรอจนถึงเที่ยงคืนเพื่อเพิ่มอีก คืนนี้ฉันตระหนักว่าฉันมีปัญหามันถูกฝังอยู่ชั่วขณะและฉันได้ปลดล็อคบางอย่างในตัวฉันที่ไม่ได้ใช้งาน ดังนั้นฉันจึงถูกแบนมาก และทุกคนมี ขออภัยที่ไม่ได้อธิบายรายละเอียดเพิ่มเติม แต่ฉันเสียมากกว่า ID ที่ชนะไปแล้ว ฉันใช้จ่ายไปมากเป็นสองเท่าของความสุขที่ได้รับชัยชนะเป็นครั้งแรกในพื้นที่ของสัปดาห์ที่แล้ว อย่าติดตามเงินทั้งหมดที่ฉันชนะและไม่เคยถอนออกโดยคำนวณว่าฉันอาจจะเสียสามครั้งฉันโกหกคู่ของฉันเกี่ยวกับเรื่องนี้แล้ว “โอ้ฉันมีเงินโบนัส” “โอ้ฉันมีเงินเหลือจากครั้งที่แล้ว” ฉันบอบบางและหงุดหงิดเกินไปฉันกำลังเล่นและหยุดตอบสนองเมื่อฉันเล่น ถ้ามันกวนใจฉันระหว่างเกมฉันก็ตัดมันและดึงมันออกมาและฉันก็รู้ตัวในวันนี้และฉันก็รู้สึกไม่สบายตัวจริงๆ เป็นเกมกลยุทธ์ที่เล่นเกมแอพของตัวเองดังนั้นบางครั้งเราจะไม่พูดมากเกินไป ฉันพยายามปรับการใช้จ่ายของฉันเพราะเขาเอาเงินเข้าเกมของเขาด้วยตอนนี้เราทั้งคู่มีเกม อีฟไม่ค่อยเล่นเกมด้วยตัวเองมากนักจนถึงตอนนี้ตอนนี้ฉันโกรธที่เธอพยายามคุยกับฉัน ฉันตระหนักว่ามันอันตรายแค่ไหน ฉันเกือบจะโกรธเขาที่อยู่รอบตัวฉันและหันมาสนใจฉัน แต่ฉันก็ไม่รู้สึกอะไรเลยถ้าฉันชนะหรือแพ้ในเกมเหล่านั้น ฉันแค่กลัวว่าเรื่องนี้จะยุติลงเร็วแค่ไหนดังนั้นฉันหวังว่าฉันจะหยุดได้แล้ว ก่อนที่ฉันจะทำลายทุกอย่างไม่ใช่แค่การเงินฉันหวังว่าฉันจะทำได้ดีขึ้น

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Charlie Carrel Online Poker Poker YouTube

สาเหตุที่ปัญหาของ Charlie Carrel บนอินเทอร์เน็ตเป็นเรื่องศักดิ์สิทธิ์


วิดีโอ YouTube ส่วนใหญ่ที่มีผู้เล่นโป๊กเกอร์จะคล้ายกัน พวกเขามีปัญหาเมื่อผู้เล่นโป๊กเกอร์เริ่มต้นด้วยเงินจำนวนเล็กน้อยเพื่อเขียนพูดว่า $ 50 และต้องการให้มันกลายเป็นแบ๊งค์ 5 คนเช่น 10,000 ดอลลาร์ นั่นคือสิ่งที่แสดงให้เห็นซีรีส์วิดีโอล่าสุดของ Charlie Carrel บน YouTube เหตุใดการดู Charlie Carrel จึงแตกต่างจากการดูผู้เล่นอื่น ๆ ทั้งแบบออนไลน์หรือแบบสด เป็นเวลานานที่ Charlie Carrel อาศัยอยู่ในโลกของผู้เล่นโป๊กเกอร์ที่ฉันไม่รู้จัก – มีประสบการณ์มาก มันแซงหน้าฉันไปแล้วสำหรับโอกาสที่สมบูรณ์แบบจริงๆ ในช่วงต้นอาชีพการรายงานของฉันฉันได้รับการทดสอบอย่างเหมาะสมกับเหตุการณ์เล็ก ๆ น้อย ๆ ที่ไม่มีใครสังเกตเห็น แต่บางครั้งมีเพียงดวงตาของฉัน แต่นั่นเป็นวิธีที่ถูกต้องและในไม่ช้าฉันก็พบว่าตัวเองอยู่ที่ปรากต่อหน้า Charlie และ Ben Heath เพื่อนสนิทของเขา Carrel และ Heath ใช้เวลาที่เหลือทั้งวันเรียนรู้แบบฝึกหัดเดียวกันและผลัดกันบ่อยๆดังนั้นจึงมีเหตุผลที่จะตรวจสอบสิ่งที่พวกเขาทำ พวกเขาทุกคนอายุน้อยกว่ามีความก้าวหน้าและก้าวหน้ามากกว่าผู้เล่นในวัยเดียวกันซึ่งทำให้ผมประทับใจมากโดยเฉพาะในหมู่ผู้เล่นชาวอังกฤษ ภาพลักษณ์เก่า ๆ ของนักแสดงชาวอังกฤษเป็นชายผิวสีเข้มขี้ระแวง Carrel และ Heath ไม่ได้เป็นเช่นนั้นซึ่งเป็นอากาศบริสุทธิ์จริงๆ เมื่อเผชิญหน้ากับตำแหน่งที่โดดเด่นบนโต๊ะทุกคนในโต๊ะจะพูดถึงหัวข้อที่น่าสนใจเช่นปัญญาประดิษฐ์ มันจะมาเมื่อไหร่มันจะเป็นอย่างไรตลอดชีวิตของเรามันจะเป็นส่วนถาวรของเผ่าพันธุ์มนุษย์? Carrel นำความเป็นไปได้ในการรื้อฟื้นการสนทนาใด ๆ บน YouTube บนสถานีวิทยุยอดนิยม (ที่มีสมาชิก 47,000 คน) และในขณะที่เป้าหมายของการตั้งแบ๊งค์ยังไม่ชัดเจนเท่าที่ Carrel เกี่ยวข้อง ในช่วงไม่กี่ปีที่ผ่านมาเขากลายเป็นคนที่มีความหวังในการฟื้นฟูชีวิต Charlie Carrel เป็นคนที่สนุกสนานในการฟังและดูการเล่นโป๊กเกอร์ มันไม่สมเหตุสมผลเลยที่จะชนะมากกว่า $ 50 ถึง $ 10,000 มันขึ้นอยู่กับว่าโครงการจะใช้เวลานานแค่ไหน แต่ก็เหมือนกับสิ่งต่างๆส่วนใหญ่ในชีวิตการเดินทางที่พิสูจน์แล้วว่าสนุกกว่าปลายทางที่คุณกำลังจะไป ความตื่นเต้นในการดู Charlie Carrel พูดคุยเกี่ยวกับโป๊กเกอร์และชีวิตเป็นสิ่งที่แปลกและน่าตื่นเต้นในความตั้งใจของพวกเขาไม่ใช่ผลที่ตามมา คุณสามารถดูตอนล่าสุดของการเสนอราคาของ Charlie Carrel เพื่อเปลี่ยน $ 50 เป็น $ 10,000 ด้านล่างและเราขอแนะนำอย่างยิ่ง

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