Business China Macau Macau Bubble stocks

Did the next Macau bubble just start two weeks ago?


The entire concept of a “bull market in stocks” makes little sense. Sound crazy? These days, certainly, because we’re always hearing about a perpetual bull market in stocks. Valuations increasingly disconnected from economic reality, asset bubbles in one class or another, armies of speculators moving like zombie hoards descending on the next fad and blowing it up to infinity and beyond, Buzz Lightyear-like.Why is the whole concept of a bull market generally, nonsense? Because if the value of everything is going up simultaneously, then nothing is going up. If everyone is a superhero, nobody is. If, in an imaginary economy, absolutely everything costs, say, $5, (labor, land, capital whatever) and then the next day everything costs $10, then what’s changed? The answer is absolutely nothing.The only thing that matters is relative valuations between asset classes. Let’s divide them into three of the most basic ones. Equities (stocks), bonds (debt), and commodities (consumer goods). If all three are going up in tandem, then there is no “bull market” in anything. If commodities are going up faster than stocks and bonds, you have inflation, or even hyperinflation. Ask anyone in Venezuela whether they care that their stock market is doing great, nominally. They don’t. They’re looking for their next glop of gruel or morsel of moldy bread to survive the day.But if stocks and bonds are rising and consumer goods are static to falling, you have a bull market in financial assets. This is where we are now. And boy are we really hard and deep into it now. Below is the ratio of the S&P 500 to the CRB Commodities Index.And I’ve got news for everyone. This bull market in stocks relative to consumer goods in dollar terms is already over. It ended almost a year ago. On April 20, 2020 to be exact. Red circle blowoff top above. That was when oil crashed to negative $35 a barrel and we all lived in an alternative financial freakhouse universe. But I have more news than that. This entire “bull market” in stocks has been one gigantic illusion from the very beginning. Stocks aren’t going up. They haven’t gone up for 21 years. Money is going down. Here is the graph of stocks relative to the prime monetary commodity, gold, over the same timeframe above.We can see here that from 1990 to 2000, we had a real bull market in stocks. Equities rocketed in gold terms and in terms of consumer goods generally. Everyone felt richer. Portfolios up, expenses down. But since that time, money has been dying at an accelerated pace and the standard of living has fallen.The bull market in stocks over the last 21 years has been an illusion, a tiny echo of the bull that ended at the turn of the century. We have spent the last 21 years trying to reinflate it, but gold has exposed the lie. We are now at the point where the illusion is about to collapse completely. In my view, we have only a few months left until it all hits the fan. Until then, the bubbles will keep coming in staccato frenetic fashion, moving from one asset class to another faster and faster, until we all get so dizzy we can’t follow it anymore. Last week I speculated that maybe the next target for the zombie hoard will be in penny gaming stocks. I was close. It’s in Macau stocks. It may already have started two weeks ago. The frenzy has started over news about China opening up again. I mean, just look at this crazy chart of the Macau proxy ETF:That last surge higher is just since February 1. We could be at the beginning of a crazy but brief ride higher in Macau stocks right now. New all time highs again, and Macau isn’t even fully open yet. The latest full month statistics for December show a 78.6% drop in visitors year over year. And yet we’re at new all time highs in these stocks already. It’s just completely crazy. I can understand the Macau opening up again trade, but to argue that this factor is being priced in at these levels, at new all time highs? As if none of this full year shutdown hurt any of the casinos fundamentally at all? That’s just totally bonkers crazy. It’s a reflection of the value of the currency these stocks are priced in, not the stocks themselves.What’s happening is that the zombie hoard of bubble chasers is reading the headlines regarding China starting to open up again, and they’re slamming buy orders and call options like they’ve been doing with tech stocks and Gamestop and BTC and all the other fads. We just got news out of Bloomberg that China’s Imax had a face-ripping rally due to exploding ticket sales. China is, indeed opening up, and the zombie hoard of speculators is now going to spray their money hoses at anything Chinese. Macau might be at the center of it.How high can this Macau bubble go, if that’s what we just saw start two weeks ago? The truth is, it doesn’t matter. If you get into it, you’ll get hooked and keep levering yourself up, counting your paper gains, unable to separate from them until you get caught in a vortex. At some point, my view this year, it’s all going to come crashing down when all the damage from 2020 is finally revealed all over the world. You can’t paper it over forever. The damage to Macau casinos doesn’t just go away. It festers in the form of more and more debt, and a damaged consumer base that can no longer patronize casinos in the way it once could. Festering wounds need the paper bandage removed and they need to be operated on. That is painful. And it’s coming.When we think of the word “bubble”, what are we really talking about? A bubble is something that looks, from the outside, to be really big and stable. The shape of it, a sphere, is the most stable shape in the universe. It’s why planets, stars, moons, and possibly even the spacetime continuum itself, spontaneously shape themselves into spheres. The force of gravity equalizes at every point on the sphere, forming equilibrium. Nature always seeks equilibrium. And so bubbles take on the illusion of stability, but unlike a real sphere, there’s nothing inside them. When they pop, they are gone almost instantly. This one is about to pop. Macau appears to be the next victim sucked up by the bubble. Macau will survive and rebuild. The question is, in what form? I wouldn’t take a bet the depended on me getting the answer to that question right.

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Intertops at WSOP Milli Maker!


I can’t believe how fast the time has gone by! Last year was my first World Series of Poker and it seems like just yesterday!Now, My second World series of Poker is halfway through and another year is almost already in the books! Time sure does fly! Going through these blog posts and thinking about my time last year, the good and the bad, sure was an exciting ride! I didn’t have anywhere near the schedule I attempted last year, but that didn’t mean I was going to miss out on the action! Things were just as exciting this year, but from a different perspective for me at least! Intertops had a great idea to send out two online qualifiers out for their chance at glory! After all who doesn’t want a WSOP bracelet and a million dollars!! The two qualifiers won their seats to the Milli Maker through a $100 buy-in satellite on Intertops online poker site. A pretty good deal considering its a $3500 package and the fields were only about 20 players deep! The deal was to set everyone up at the Rio for a 6 nights stay, so we could make the process run smoother and give the players the full experience of the amazingly fun CHAOS that is the WSOP! lol It also included the $1500 buy-in to the Milli Maker and $500 travel expenses. We also may have had a few nights of cocktails and food thrown on the Intertops tab as well.,,,maybe ???? but I’m not admitting anything! lolI met up with the two qualifiers, Barney from West Virginia and Balazs from Hungary for a drink a day before the tournament. They were both excited for Vegas, but it wasn’t their first time out here. Barney had been several times and Balazs once before. It was,however, their first WSOP tournament! Barney thought he had a rough flight, coming all the way from the other side of the country, until Balazs told us it had taken him over 18 hours just to get to LAX and then took a bus ride the rest of the way to Vegas!! While the scenery was probably pretty cool to see, we still had to give him credit for tackling the long journey! It was cool to hear their stories and as usual I told them plenty of my own. lol I kinda have a tendency to ramble on after a “Jack and Coke” lol We had some laughs and talked some strategy and I was happy to get to know them both! I was glad to learn they both weren’t really interested in the craziness of Vegas, they were focused on the Milli Maker and couldn’t wait to get to the tables! So we made our way to the cage for their tickets and their shot at the guaranteed one MILLION dollar first place prize!The World Series of Poker never learns their lesson apparently and again have most of the big tourneys starting at 10 am! So we had an early start the next day! Luckily the guys both came in a day early to help with the jet lag and try to get use to it before the big day. I doubt either player was real concerned about the lack of sleep and more concerned about the nerves of excitement as they sat down to play.The room was packed full of players and you could literally feel the excitement in the air! While it is chaotic many times at the WSOP, there really isn’t another poker experience like it. It’s truly amazing and if you haven’t ever at least gone to witness it, you really need to. I was pumped to sweat the action of these two guys ! They both handled themselves well midst all the madness and after few orbits, they had settled in nicely. We all had a quick chat on break about just enjoying the experience they both seemed to start not only getting comfortable but crushing their tables! Balazs had started to chip up quite a bit, but Barney was the one on a HEATER! He had a massive pot shipped his way, in i believe level 3, that turned out to be the boost he needed to catapult him to a deep run! I know he’s going to explain it better in an upcoming interview with Rikard from PokerTube, but from what he told me, it went something like this…He had Ace Jack of Spades in the big blind and a super loose aggressive player (coincidentally from my home casino lol) opened from mid position and got a one caller. Barney decided to just flat and see a flop. The flop came 9 high with two spades, a pretty awesome spot for Barney, but he decided to check and let the loose aggressive raiser hang himself, but to his surprise he checked and the caller, who was pretty short stacked, moved all in! Barney had the nut flush draw and two overs, so he called, only to have the original pre-flop loose aggro player check-shove ALL IN! Barney went into the tank, the loose guy had him covered , so this was for his tournament life!! He told me later he thought back to our talk about just enjoying himself and said “screw it”, making the call and taking the gamble! I can’t say I blame him for calling off, knowing the player that made the shove to be very wild and spazzy. He turns over his AJ spades to hear the “good call” from the loose player while he shows K10 of spades for the second nut flush draw and two overs. Well the spades missed the turn and river, but a Jack hit and was enough to seal the deal and ship HEAPS to our man, pushing him to over 3 x average stack in level 3!!! Woohooo!I’ll leave you hanging on that high note and in suspense! lol I’ll finish up with part two this weekend and hopefully figure out how to add some cool videos on here by then! We had some great moments and really wanna share those highlights! Be sure to check back for them soon and check out all the current events for Intertops here! Or if you want to ask me directly, come stop into our new YouTube channel and see my new Live Stream on there! Say hello, give us a like and see what we have planned for some cool upcoming projects!Run Good!Tim

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Featured Indian Poker News

Daily Cash Smash 2.0 Live Now At The Cash Tables On PokerBaazi


Starting from 16th February to 28th February, PokerBaazi will be hosting the Daily Cash Smash! 13 Days, daily leaderboards and prize pool of INR 21.45 Lakhs! The players can grind any of the three (NLHE/PLO-4/PLO-5) cash tables and all the chips won from the leaderboards will be withdrawable (separate for all three variants)! 
All players will have a chance to win from a daily prize pool of INR 1.65 Lakhs! All you have to do is play the cash tables between 10:00 AM – 4:00 AM! 
The Daily Leaderboard prize pool 

5/10 & 10/25 (Texas Hold’Em): Daily 8k Leaderboard
1/2 & 2/5 (Texas Hold’Em): Daily 4k Leaderboard
25/50 & 50/100 (Texas Hold’Em): Daily 12k Leaderboard
5/10 & 10/25 (PLO-5): Daily 6k Leaderboard
25/50 & 50/100 (PLO-5): Daily 15k Leaderboard
1/2 & 2/5 (PLO-4): Daily 2k Leaderboard
10/25 & 25/50 (PLO-4): Daily 8k Leaderboard

It’s time to grind again on PokerBaazi, but this time, it’s going to have to be on the cash felts! Head over to the link below for more information about the Daily Cash Smash 2.0 and Leaderboards
For more information about the latest poker promotions and poker news, keep reading PokerShots! 

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Business Gambling Ireland

The luck of the Irish has Ireland at the top of global gambling spend


It may not have originated in Ireland, but the phrase “the luck of the Irish” rings loudly in the country. According to The Irish Post, more money is spent, per capita, on gambling in Ireland than in almost all other countries around the world. Only in two countries – Australia and Singapore – is more spent hitting the slots and the tables than in Ireland.The media outlet doesn’t source its data, but indicates that the Irish love online gambling more than any other form. Online gambling spend is 60%, greatly superior to other forms gambling and sports gambling, which only accounts for 15% of the money. The lottery receives a 10% cut, the same amount given to gambling machines and slots. Casinos, of which Ireland has around 20, pick up 5% of the action.While Australia and Singapore may see more gambling spend per capita, Ireland is the hands-down winner in online gaming spend, with The Irish Post asserting, “Ireland takes the lead globally when it comes to online gambling.” It adds, “With almost 3 billion American dollars spent on gambling and betting every year, that means that each man, woman, and child in Ireland are spending roughly 500 [euros] ($607) annually on this type of entertainment.”The media outlet further indicates that online gambling is most popular in Ireland because the segment is more regulated. It cites “outdated laws” that some casinos are exploiting to attract attention, but the transparency and accountability afforded gamblers by online operators give them an edge. The Irish Post explains that, according to reports, many Irish would prefer to gamble in a British casino than in a domestic one, possibly as a result of the outdated laws.Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, the Irish loved to gamble online and the segment increased about 15% each year. Last year, with the coronavirus in full swing, the numbers jumped substantially and, with the introduction of live online casino games and live sports gambling, the online segment has skyrocketed in popularity. Online gambling is inarguably the future, looking down the road 20 to 30 years, but it’s never too early for casino operators to start preparing.Surprisingly, the U.S. ranks fifth in terms of per-capita gambling spend, even less than Finland. However, with a population of over 330 million, it’s the largest market available. $120 billion was spent on gambling in the country in 2019, while the Irish spent $2.7 billion through its population of less than five million.

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Uncategorized

In First Hint of WSOP 2021 Revival, WSOP Launches “Ultimate Poker Champion” Sweepstakes Promo

In what is thought to be the first sign that Caesars is planning for a live World Series of Poker festival in 2021, the operator has put on a new free-to-enter sweepstakes promotion, the Ultimate Poker Champion Experience.

Running from February 15 through April 30, 2021, the contest offers anyone in the United States a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to be a part of the WSOP Main Event. One lucky person will not only get their entry into the Main Event paid in full, but they will also be treated to an elite experience during their stay. To enter, all you have to do is fill out the form.

With the coronavirus pandemic still causing mass disruption to live events and travel in the United States and around the world, the WSOP has yet to announce any schedule or plan for this year’s series. There is no information around the main event, for which the promotion is centered around.

The Normal Ramp Up to the WSOP

The WSOP is poker’s biggest event of the year. Tens of thousands of players descend on the Rio All-Suite Hotel & Casino in Las Vegas for more than six weeks of poker. Action culminates in the $10,000 Main Event, the most prestigious tournament in the game. The winner is crowned the year’s champion, poker’s highest accolade.

However, last year, due to the coronavirus, the regular World Series of Poker 2020 was canceled for the first time in its 51-year history.

In its place was an online series held half in the United States—on the official WSOP Nevada and WSOP NJ online poker rooms—and half outside the US on global online poker room GGPoker.

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In the winter, WSOP and GGPoker joined forces again for a hybrid online-live Main Event where players competed in tournaments online, then met for a live final table. The two winners of these met in a special heads-up match in Las Vegas.

Normally by now, organization and marketing are in full flow. Online satellites are underway on official WSOP sites as well as partners internationally. Schedules are revealed, packages are offered and promotions are spread.

However, nothing has yet been revealed for this year—understandable, given how no one knows how the next few months will unfold. That makes this promotion even more intriguing.

Sweepstakes Package Details

The winner of the sweepstakes promotion will win entry into the $10,000 buy-in 2021 WSOP Main Event.

As noted, normally this is a multi-day tournament held live in the Rio; last year, it was mostly online. What it will be this year is unknown. The implication, however, is that Caesars wants to run this live in Las Vegas, given the other parts of the prize package.

The winner and their guest will be flown to Las Vegas from anywhere in the continental United States. Once in the city, they will be treated to a dinner for two at a Celebrity Chef restaurant, a three night stay in a suite at Caesars Palace, a whisky and cigar night at the hotel’s Montecristo Cigar Bar, and $1,000 in spending money.

The total prize package, including all the extra goodies, is worth $14,000.

Prize
Approximate Value (USD)

$10,000 Seat to 2021 WSOP Main Event
$10,000

3-night stay in a Suite at Caesars Palace
$1,000

Round-trip airfare for two (from continental US)
$1,100

$1,000 VISA Gift Card
$1,000

Whisky and cigars at Montecristo Cigar Bar
$400

Dinner for two at Celebrity Chef’s restaurant
$500

Hotel Stay at the Rio, a Hint of the WSOP Finally Moving?

Curiously, the stay is only for a three nights—which would normally not be long enough for a deep run of the WSOP Main Event. Last year, the tournament was spread over two weeks, with three Day 1s and two Day 2s then a Day 3, Day 4, and final table, with breaks gaps in-between.

Also of note, the hotel stay is in Caesars Palace, not the Rio. Whether this suggests an anticipated location move or not remains to be seen. The Rio was sold back in 2019 though Caesars agreed to manage the property for two years.

The 2020 event was scheduled to take place in the Rio, and the live Main event did go ahead in its convention center. However, no announcement has been made for the 2021 series—and with Caesars potentially coming to the end of its management contract, this could well be the first indication that WSOP plans to move it to another Caesars location in Las Vegas.

How to Enter the WSOP Ultimate Poker Champion Sweepstakes Promo

If you are a United States resident, just fill out this form. That’s it! You can read below for more details.

The contest is open to anyone over 21 years of age, with the exception of employees and family of Caesars Interactive Entertainment, Inc or Caesars Entertainment Services, LLC. The offer is only valid in the continental United States and void where prohibited.

Entries are open until midnight on April 30, 2021 and the winner will be randomly chosen on May 6, 2021 from all the entries received prior to the closing date.

In the event that the winner does not meet eligibility requirements, up to 5 alternate draws will be made to choose a winner. If no eligible winner is selected after the maximum 5 alternate draws, the prize will remain unawarded.

Prizes are non-transferable, and not subject to change except at the discretion of the contest Administrator. The Administrator reserves the right to substitute a prize of equal or greater value if the above prizes are not available for any reason, and winners are responsible for all taxes and fees which may be associated with receiving or using the prize. There is no cash equivalent for this prize.

The dates for the prize will be set once the Main Event is scheduled, but the trip must be taken before December 31, 2021. This gives the organizers a wide window to schedule the WSOP 2021 Main Event—whatever form it takes.

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เพิ่มเติม Intertops Milli Maker!


ลาสเวกัสไม่สิ้นสุด … เราออกจากรอบคัดเลือก Intertops ในเกมสุดท้าย Barney เพิ่งทำลายความฝันของผู้เล่นและคว้าเงินกองกลางขนาดใหญ่! ทำให้ชิปเฉลี่ยของเขาอยู่ที่ระดับ 3 ประมาณ 3 เท่า! เขาสามารถนั่งลงและล่องในตำแหน่งที่ดีมองหาตำแหน่งที่ดีเพื่อกลั่นแกล้งผู้เล่นคนอื่นหรือรอชิปใหญ่ เขาเป็นเจ้าของมันมานานแล้ว แต่น่าเสียดายสำหรับเขาเมื่อเลเวลของเราสูงขึ้นเรื่อย ๆ การจับสลากตารางในฝันของเขาก็เปลี่ยนไป คำถามแรกมาจากคู่ต่อสู้หน้าใหม่ที่มุ่งมั่นและมุ่งมั่นเพียงไม่กี่คนจากนั้นก็มีการเปลี่ยนแปลงที่โหดร้ายในไม่ช้า! เขาออกมาก่อนเวลาที่จะแกว่งและวิ่งได้ดีมาก แต่เมื่อรวมกับการเปลี่ยนแปลงในโต๊ะและประสบการณ์อันยาวนานในการถูกการ์ดฆ่าสิ่งต่อไปคือ 8 ชั่วโมงต่อมาเรากำลังพยายามหาม่านบังตาขนาดใหญ่ 20 อันและความฝัน! น่าเสียดายที่ผู้เล่นคนอื่นของเราจาก Intertops, Balazs มีไพ่ที่ไม่ดีดังนั้นเขาจึงทำได้เพียงสแต็คสั้น ๆ และขัดเกลา เมื่อเขาดึงดูดทุกคนเข้ามาในเกมด้วยชุดใหญ่เขาไม่สามารถหาคู่ผสมที่จะพาเขากลับมาได้ในท้ายที่สุดเขาก็ฆ่าเขาและทำให้เขาออกเดินทาง เขามีความสุขมากที่ได้มีส่วนร่วมในเกมนี้ แต่ก็ผิดหวังอย่างเห็นได้ชัดจากผลงานของเขา แต่ในสนามโป๊กเกอร์ทัวร์นาเมนต์ที่โหดร้ายนี้ไม่มีอะไรที่คุณทำได้คุณก็ทำได้ดีในตำแหน่งนี้ ดังที่ Doug Polk กล่าวว่า: “บางครั้งในเกมนี่คือตอนที่คุณตาย” LOL แม้ว่า Ballaz จะหงุดหงิดในตอนแรก แต่เมื่อเขาไปที่โต๊ะเงินสดในภายหลังเมื่อฉันคุยกับเขาเขาดูพอใจมาก! ฮ่า ๆ เขาทำได้ดีมาก แต่ยังเหลือเวลาอีกไม่กี่วันในลาสเวกัสที่จะทำลายมัน ดังนั้นเลื่อนไปที่ลาสเวกัสได้ฟรียิงด้วย Milli Maker และเอาชนะวิญญาณบางส่วนในเกมเงินสดทั้งหมดนี้ก็ยังคงเป็นการเดินทางที่ดีทีเดียว) แม้ว่าบาลาซจะไม่ได้วิ่ง แต่เขาก็กำลังมองหา สำหรับพนักงานของ Barney และ Intertops เรายังคงเต็มไปด้วยความหวังและหยาดเหงื่อ มันเป็นคืนที่ยาวนานและตึงเครียดไพ่ของเขาไม่ดีโต๊ะแข็งและถูกบดขยี้เป็นเวลาหลายชั่วโมง เขายังคงกระตือรือร้นและอดทนต่อทุกสิ่ง! เขาไม่เพียง แต่จะยืนหยัดในยามค่ำคืนอย่างใด แต่เขาก็พร้อมสำหรับเกมในวันถัดไป! ! นี่เป็นกระเป๋าสองใบแรกในประวัติศาสตร์แน่นอนว่าไม่มีเกมไหนดีไปกว่านี้อีกแล้ว! ! เมื่อฟองเงินระดมทุนใกล้เข้ามาฉันแน่ใจว่ามันทำให้เขามีความคิดที่จะหลั่งอะดรีนาลีนและเขาต้องการที่จะจ่ายเงินให้กับงานใหญ่นี้! พูดตามตรงฉันไม่คิดว่าจะตื่นเต้นกับการแข่งขันโป๊กเกอร์มานานขนาดนี้! การทำงานเพื่อคนเหล่านี้สนุกกว่าการเข้าร่วมการแข่งขันด้วยตัวเอง! มันบ้ามากฉันตรวจสอบนาฬิกาการแข่งขันไปมาและตรวจสอบการอัปเดตทางออนไลน์ ฉันคลานไปรอบ ๆ ห้องพยายามหามุมที่ดีกว่าเพื่อดูกองชิปฉันอยู่ทุกที่! ฮ่า ๆ ดูฟองสบู่แตกในที่สุดผู้ชายของเราก็ทำเงินใน Milli Maker ได้มันน่าตกใจและน่าตื่นเต้นมาก! ว้าว! ! ! เขาพยายามอย่างเต็มที่ที่จะอดทนและพยายามอย่างกล้าหาญเพื่อให้ตัวเองกลับเข้าสู่เกม แต่นี่ไม่ใช่เจตนา เรามีช่วงเวลาที่ดี แต่ผลงานที่โดดเด่นของเขาจบลงแล้ว เขาจัดการเพื่อรักษาโอกาสในการจ้างงานสำหรับคนหลายร้อยคน แต่เงินเดือนของเขาเพิ่มขึ้นประมาณสองเท่าและเป็นเงินสดมากกว่า 2,000 ดอลลาร์ จึงไม่ใช่เรื่องเลวร้ายสำหรับเขา! มุ่งหน้าสู่ลาสเวกัส 2 ถุงในวันแรกรับเงินสด WSOP ประสบการณ์ดีๆและเรื่องราวดีๆ! เป็นความสุขที่ได้อยู่ร่วมกับคนเหล่านี้และมีส่วนร่วมในกิจกรรมนี้กับพวกเขาฉันหวังเป็นอย่างยิ่งว่าจะได้พบพวกเขาอีกในกิจกรรมครั้งต่อไปของเรา! โปรดติดตามแผนการต่อไปของ Intertops คุณอาจเข้าร่วมได้! ตอนนี้คุณสามารถติดตามผู้ชนะทั้งหมดชุดล่าสุดของเราได้หลังจากการแข่งขัน Velden ที่จะเริ่มในออสเตรีย! ดูวิดีโอ YouTube ที่นี่ดูบทสัมภาษณ์หนึ่งในผู้ชนะแบบเต็มและอย่าลืมติดตาม www.live-dream-poker.com สำหรับข้อมูลอัปเดตทั้งหมดจากต่างประเทศ! เรียกใช้ GoodTimP.s คุณสามารถดูบทสัมภาษณ์ของ Barneys บนช่อง YouTube ของเราและทบทวนการเดินทางของเรา!

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Finding folds at the WSOP

Those who know my game well know I don’t particularly like to fold reasonably strong hands. While being a bit of a calling station works well against most good, aggressive players who almost always have at least some bluffs in their ranges, against weaker opponents who play blatantly straightforward and rarely bluff, calling down with good, but not amazing, hands can get you in a ton of trouble. This WSOP has provided me with numerous examples where I should simply lay down a hand to a weak, passive player that would be criminal to fold against someone with a balanced range.
The first example took place in a $1,500 WSOP event. The blinds were 25/25 and everyone had around 4,500 chips. I raised with Kc-Qd to 75 from middle position and both the small blind and big blind called. Both of my opponents were around 55 years old and had yet to take any sort of an aggressive betting line. The flop came Ks-Ts-6d. My opponents checked to me and I bet 150. Only the big blind called. The turn was the (Ks-Ts-6d)-2c. The small blind checked and I decided to bet 300 for value. To my surprise, he made it 1,000 with little thought. I reluctantly folded and he proudly showed me his Kh-Th.
While most good players could, and likely should, have flush draws and marginal made hands they decided to turn into bluffs in their range, a tight passive player is almost never bluffing. Knowing this, which hands would he realistically check raise large for value and, in his mind, protection? I imagine the worst hand he may think is a “premium” hand on this board would be K-J. If that is the worst possible hand he can have, K-Q is in awful shape. It is worth noting that you will occasionally fold the best hand but against his tight value range, K-Q is crushed. Even if he had a few premium draws in his range, K-Q still simply must be folded.  When your opponent’s range is almost entirely premium made hands, if you have a good, but not premium, made hand, you should usually fold.
Another hand came up a little while later in the same tournament. This time, the blinds were 150/300-25 with 15,000 effective stacks. A tight, passive player raised to 750 from the small blind and I elected to call in the big blind with Js-Tc. The flop came Jh-Jd-9h. My opponent bet 900 and I called. The turn was the (Jh-Jd-9h)-6c. He checked and I quickly tossed in 1,500, hoping to look as if I was trying to blatantly steal the pot. When he check raised to 4,000 with confidence, I assumed the way I put my chips in the pot induced him to run an optimistic bluff. I elected to call, hoping he would shove the river. The river was the (Jh-Jd-9h-6c)-8s. My opponent instantly went all-in for 9,000 and I called with little though, losing to his 6d-6s.
So, where did I go wrong? Some people may think I should have raised the flop for “protection” but if the opponent only has a few outs, you should not be concerned with getting outdrawn, especially if you suspect you will be able to extract an additional street of value later on the turn or river. I was also concerned that he would fold almost all hands worse than a 9 if I raised, which would be a disaster as I certainly want to keep him in the pot with various A and K high hands. Finally, I wasn’t entirely sure I could profitably get in 50 big blinds against this specific player if he elected to reraise on the flop.
I messed up badly on the turn. I thought he would view my splashy bet as a bluff whereas in reality, he probably wasn’t paying attention to how I put my chips in the pot in the least bit. If he had nothing, he would fold and if he had a good hand, he would call. It is as simple as that. I then compounded my error by assuming my opponent would lose his mind and attack my splashy bet, which he probably wasn’t even aware of. This made me think my opponent’s range consisted of almost entirely hands I crush. In reality, he simply has a J or better every time. When he instantly pushed on the nasty 8s river, which improved Q-T and J-8 to better hands, I should have found a fold because I lose to all value hands besides perhaps a vastly overplayed overpair. I leveled myself about as hard as possible.
I know that most players know to not pay off tight, passive players, but I seem to forget it from time to time. When someone who hasn’t put a chip in the pot in an aggressive manner all of a sudden wants to stick his whole stack in, you need an overly premium hand to continue. Don’t forget it.
If you are going to the WSOP, I strongly suggest you spend some time preparing. If you simply show up and expect to succeed, you are almost certain to fail. I recorded a six-hour long training series for you that explains all of the preparations I make in order to ensure I have the best chance to do well. I also discuss how to play with the wildly varying stacks you will be forced to play with at the WSOP. Check it out here: Jonathan Little’s WSOP Coaching Series
Thanks for reading and good luck in your games!
This article initially appeared in CardPlayer magazine.

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Updates, Recaps and New Challenges


Wow, it’s really easy to slack on updating this blog!Haha Usually it’s the writers block or fear of making myself look even dumber than I am, but at least this time it’s because too much exciting stuff has been happening to know where to start! (ok, maybe still a little bit slackin’ lol) Between live tourney events, Intertops St Maarten satelites, Youtube additions and training changes, it’s been a hectic few weeks! So I figured a few quick updates are in order to catch everyone up to speed before we get any further along!WPT ChoctawWell first off I have to congratulate my good buddy Kamran Munaf for his insane run in the WPT main at Choctaw! Kam crushed souls the entire event, being in the top five chip counts for nearly the entire tournament! He had some good swings but overall just consistently added to his massive stack every level. His epic run came to a brutal ending though, when he bubbled the unofficial final table, finishing 10th. There were a couple HUGE hands that really wiped him out when they were down to the last two tables and there wasn’t much he could do after that. While I’m sure he’s dissappointed in not winning it all, it was a GREAT run and I expect him to be back in that spot soon to redeem himself! Hopefully we can get him in on the blog and Youtube channel to go over some of that experience!Intertops Poker now on YouTubeSpeaking of YouTube, Intertops and I are going to be doing a lot more with our channel to promote and grow the site. I will be doing some videos of the current tournament series running right now at my local casino, Winstar. The Winstar River series is a good size yearly event that brings in a lot of players from all over Texas and Oklahoma. With a 2 million dollar guaranteed prize pool for the Main Event, it’s been know to also have it’s share of big name pros swing through as well! They also have poker pro Maria Ho being the events sponsored player for added media attention. They run satellites all month leading up to a handful of events right around Memorial day. Hopefully I can scoop up a few of the cheaper satellites and free-roll the whole series! I would happy just giving the Main Event a real shot, but either way I’m gonna try and get some good highlights to share!Still 2Skinny…As far as the Fitness challenge goes, overall I’m still happy with what I’ve done so far, but still have some stuff to improve on for sure. I’ve managed to get from 144lbs to about 155lbs in about 3 months, so I’m happy with that for sure, but Ideally I would like to get back to about 170lbs before I’m really satisfied. I’ve been on point with my training around my Sciatic nerve/Piriformis issue, enough so that I’ve actually gone right back into a “normal” training routine. While I’m still dealing some some pain and needing to modify certain exercises, it still feels really good to be able to get back into that zone with training. There’s just something about being on a planned out exercise routine that seems to center me, and carry over positively to all other aspects of my life. There’s been a few “hiccups”, especially with traveling for the WPT Choctaw, but I suppose that’s to be expected. The consistency is really the biggest thing, with nutrition on Tournament days in particular, but sometimes you just gotta make due with what you have and focus on Poker lol. (Plus fried chicken N waffles are an AMAzing comfort food after busting out late in a tournament! lol)Intertops St MaartenLast and not least of course is the Intertops St Maarten WSOP circuit satellites going on right now! Last Sunday we gave away the first seat and some lucky winner is on their way to play the WSOPc main event! If they can pull themselves away from the beach that is! We are giving away a few more seats, and the next round has already started! Win your way to this dream package from as little as 3 Bucks!! The next event is going to be Sunday the 27th, so be sure to hit the tables now to get ready! Intertops and TKPT run one of the most entertaining series down there and you don’t want to miss this one! I hope to see you there!Run Good!TimPS that Intertops player XXGlorynbaes in the feature Photo! He was my dealer a few times for WPT Choctaw! Small World! lol

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“It’s Not about the Money”


“You have to have ZERO respect for a dollar when you play tournament poker!”This was the advice I received after busting a recent tourney. I was venting/reviewing with a friend, who is a much better player with A LOT more experience, and he was quick to hit me with this line. We were going over a particular series of hands from the 300k GTD at the Winstar river series in which I went from nursing a short stack for hours, to a sudden heater that propelled me up to almost chip leader at the table. It was a 4-5 hands blitz that had me feeling pretty amazing, but then on the 6th hand a found myself in a gross spot that could have( and probably should have) resulted in getting those new found chips all in! As I discussed the hand history, I mentioned to him that I felt the urge to “save” the chips I had just finally acquired after so patiently waiting all day! He immediately was no longer concerned with the hand history and went right into questioning my mindset and bankroll. “If you want to be a great poker player, you have to have ZERO respect for a dollar when you play poker…as bad as it sounds, it’s true and unfortunately, that’s why so many people become degenerates!” Yikes, straight to the point and brutally honest, but exactly I needed to hear! Suddenly, this seemingly basic hand history review had turned into an explosion of questions about the inner workings of my game! Why was I fearful to lose those chips? Had I been playing scared?“Different kind of playing scared!”The hand history itself was past around and I received several different viewpoints on it, but to this day, I’m still unsure what the correct play was lol So I think I’ll save that for another post, as the more important point was made, maybe THE most important point of my whole poker career!?Have I been letting the “money” effect my decisions?I think we’ve all heard that phrase about being numb to the money in poker. Win or lose, you can’t let the thought of what that money means to you in the real world influence your decisions at the table. All that should matter in the moment is making the correct play. If you bust, you bust. If it’s a tourney you just re-buy or play the next flight. In a cash game you simply reload at the table and move on the the next hand. It’s just standard practice for almost every player I know, myself included. Hell a few times I’ve witnessed friends fire over 10 bullets at a single tournament, with buy-ins ranging from $150 to $1650! I’ve also watched as they reach into their backpacks for another brick of hundreds after getting stacked for the 5th or 6th time. While I’m sure it seems absurd to most normal people,(and it should be) unfortunately for us poker players, that’s kinda just the way it goes sometimes. We chalked it up to variance, running bad, or being unlucky. We just call it a “standard” part of the game and move on. We aren’t being degens, the run bad is REAL, right?! lol“Nah, it’s definitely about the money…”Seriously who burns all that money!? lol Don’t listen to the Joker up there, its always about the money! Well of course, being the best poker player you can be should be the ultimate goal for any seriously player (Sending a message? lol). Hmmm, so I guess for poker players, this quote should say something like “Send them the message; It IS about the money! ” So by showing your skills as a player, you plan on beating them and taking their money!? lol;) All joking aside, at the end of the day, it’s about making money. It’s what makes the poker economy go round! If you play professionally, you need to be earning and saving money to support yourself and possibly your family. You can’t be blowing through 10 buy-ins every weekend, when that money could have been your mortgage payment! It may not be as serious for you if you’re a recreational player, but not making money still means you’re not WINNING and what’s the point of competing if you can’t WIN? So no matter Pro or Rec player, the question becomes; What separates a typical “poker player” and from being a true Gambler. Where do we draw the line? Are we being financially irresponsible or making sound poker decisions?!“Every beginning has an end…”After continuing to hear my friends advice repeat in my head every time I’ve sat down to play since that day lol I realized I had to take a l hard look in the mirror and ask myself; Am I a poker player or am I a DEGEN? I mean I like to think I’m still pretty tame compared to a lot of players out there. Never being THAT out of control, but I’ve clearly made my share of mistakes. I’ve re-bought when I knew I shouldn’t, I’ve played above my means, played in bad games, played too many games at once, etc. You name it, I’m sure I’ve done it at some point, but at least I’m finally here asking, why did I do it? Have I been making the correct plays every time and just getting unlucky or have I been blind to my errors and just convinced myself what i was doing was “standard” !? Why it has taken me this long to really stop and think about it!? To realize something needs to change?So many questions and only one answer comes to my mind…Bankroll Management. The problem and the solution are the same. For me, sound decision making in poker starts with sound Bank Roll Management. Also it’s the only real thing I can control to prove to myself that I’m a winning player. So in the next post I’ll discuss general bankroll management strategies, outline my plan, and officially kick off my Intertops Bankroll Challenge.Run GoodTimPS: use promo code TOK2017 with the link to help build you’re Roll!

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Clint Bowyer นักวิเคราะห์ของ FOX NASCAR เตรียมเข้าร่วม FOX Bet Super 6

นักขับ NASCAR แชมป์ NASCAR Xfinity Series และนักวิเคราะห์การแข่งขัน FOX NASCAR คนปัจจุบัน Clint Bowyer เข้าร่วมแบรนด์ FOX Bet สำหรับฤดูกาล 2021 นักวิเคราะห์การแข่งขัน FOX NASCAR Clint Bowyer เข้าร่วมกับแบรนด์ FOX Bet สำหรับฤดูกาล 2021 Bowyer เปิดตัวบูธ FOX NASCAR Cup ในสัปดาห์นี้ โดย Daytona Speedweeks ร่วมกับ Mike Joy นักแข่งระดับตำนานและ NASCAR Hall of Fame Jeff Gordon จะมีส่วนร่วมกับทั้ง FOX Bet Real Money App และ FOX Bet Super App 6 ซึ่งเป็นแพลตฟอร์มฟรีสำหรับเล่นทั่วประเทศ ทุกสัปดาห์ตลอดฤดูกาล NASCAR ปี 2021 Bowyer นำเสนอเนื้อหาการพนันกีฬาและความรู้จากผู้เชี่ยวชาญเกี่ยวกับแบรนด์ FOX Bet และแพลตฟอร์มดิจิทัล “ไม่ต้องสงสัยเลยว่าแฟน ๆ ของ NASCAR มีความสอดคล้องกับสถิติการแข่งขันการเล่าเรื่องในอดีตและการลดลงของการแข่งขันทุกสัปดาห์เหมือนฐานทัพในอเมริกา” Bowyer กล่าว “ทีมงาน FOX Bet มีส่วนร่วมในความมุ่งมั่นของฉันในการมองหาวิธีที่จะสนุกสนานมีความสุขและท้ายที่สุดก็ยกระดับประสบการณ์การรับชมการแข่งขันในแต่ละสัปดาห์” FOX Bet Super 6 แอปเกมฟรีที่ผู้ใช้คาดเดาหกครั้งเกี่ยวกับสิ่งที่พวกเขาคิดว่าจะเกิดขึ้นในเกมสดการแข่งขันหรือกิจกรรมแนะนำแคมเปญ “Win Clint’s Money” สำหรับฤดูกาล NASCAR ปี 2021 ในตอนท้ายของฤดูกาลฟุตบอล Bowyer ได้รับตำแหน่งผู้นำจาก FOX NFL SUNDAY Terry Bradshaw และแคมเปญ Super 6 “Win Terry’s Money” ที่ผู้ใช้มีโอกาสแข่งขันในแอปเพื่อลุ้นรับเงินสดทุกสัปดาห์ในช่วงฤดูกาล เอ็นเอฟแอล การแข่งขัน “Win Clint’s Money” ผ่านแอป Super 6 จะจัดขึ้นทุกสุดสัปดาห์ในการแข่งขัน NASCAR “คลินท์กำลังปรับปรุงประสบการณ์ของแฟน ๆ ในอากาศในฐานะส่วนหนึ่งของทีม FOX Sports NASCAR ของเราและเรายินดีที่จะแบ่งปันความรู้และความนิยมในความบันเทิงออนไลน์ของเขากับผู้ใช้ Super 6” FOX Bet CMO Andrew Schneider กล่าว “ ในขณะที่ Super 6 ยังคงดึงดูดผู้ที่ชื่นชอบ NASCAR มากขึ้นเรื่อย ๆ มันจึงเหมาะอย่างยิ่งสำหรับพวกเราแฟน ๆ และ Daytona ก็เป็นการเปิดตัวที่สมบูรณ์แบบ” เริ่มต้นด้วย Daytona 500 ที่ออกอากาศในวันอาทิตย์ที่ 14 กุมภาพันธ์ (14:30 น. ตามเวลา ET) ทาง FOX แอป Super 6 ขอแนะนำ “Clint Scene 2 Contest” เป็นครั้งแรกในการแข่งขันผู้ใช้ตอบคำถามหกข้อโดยเน้นไปที่กิจกรรมระหว่างการแข่งขัน Phase 2 Cup ในฤดูกาลนี้ด้วยเงินสดและรางวัลสำหรับการปล้น เมื่อการประเมินเสร็จสิ้น FOX Bet Super 6 จะประกาศผู้มีผลงานสูงสุดในช่วงที่ 3 (อยู่ระหว่างการตรวจสอบคุณสมบัติ) แบรนด์ FOX Bet นำเสนอประสบการณ์การรับชมกีฬาที่น่าดึงดูดทำให้แฟน ๆ เข้าใกล้เกมการแข่งขันและทีมที่พวกเขาต้องการมากขึ้นด้วยการผสานรวมเนื้อหาเกมกีฬาที่ปรับแต่งเองภายในแอปและบนหน้าจอทีวีผ่านความร่วมมือกับ FOX Sports ยิ่งไปกว่านั้นวิธีการเดิมพันอันดับแรกอันดับที่สองและครั้งที่สองของ FOX Bet ยังรวมถึงการสังเกตการณ์พิเศษโดยนักวิจารณ์และนักวิเคราะห์ที่มีชื่อเสียงที่สุดของประเทศรวมถึงแบรดชอว์ที่กล่าวมาข้างต้นและห้องโถงฟุตบอลอาชีพที่มีชื่อเสียงของ Howie Long และครอบครัวแชนนอน ผู้มีส่วนร่วมเพิ่มเติมในแบรนด์ FOX Bet ได้แก่ : โคลินคาวเฮิร์ดโฮสต์ของ HERD FS1; FOX NFL KICKOFF เจ้าบ้านชาริสซาทอมป์สัน; FOX BET โฮสต์สด Rachel Bonnetta; และ FOX Sports เป็นเจ้าภาพ Rob Stone ด้วยการเข้าร่วมการแข่งขันมากกว่า 90 ล้านรายการนับตั้งแต่เปิดตัวในเดือนกันยายน 2019 ผู้ชนะมากกว่า 22,000 คนทั่วประเทศและฐานผู้ใช้ 4.4 ล้านคนแอป FOX Bet Super 6 ได้มอบรางวัลเกือบ 4 ล้านเหรียญสหรัฐ นับตั้งแต่การกลับมาของกีฬาในปลายเดือนกรกฎาคม 2020 FOX Bet Super 6 มีการดาวน์โหลดมากขึ้นในหมวดหมู่แอปพลิเคชั่นทำนายกีฬาฟรี (รวมถึงแฟนตาซี) สำหรับการแข่งขัน Super Bowl LV Super 6 แอปนี้ทำคะแนนได้มากที่สุดสำหรับการแข่งขันเดียวที่เคยมีมากกว่า 1.4 ล้านคน .

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